According to @KobeissiLetter, September headline PPI rose 2.7% year over year versus 2.6% expected, while core PPI eased to 2.6% versus 2.7% expected, indicating a mixed inflation signal for markets (source: @KobeissiLetter). They state that PPI inflation is less concerning than the weakening labor market, shifting focus to growth risks over price pressures (source: @KobeissiLetter). They add that a December Fed rate cut is now anticipated, implying a potential pivot toward easier policy (source: @KobeissiLetter). For crypto traders, the combination of a softer core print and rising rate-cut odds can support risk appetite for BTC and ETH, though the headline PPI beat may temper immediate upside until yields and dollar traction confirm the move (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @cas_abbe, the US PPI and Core PPI prints are due today at 8:30 a.m. ET with consensus at 2.7% for both measures, source: @cas_abbe. According to @cas_abbe, the release is crucial as the odds of a rate cut next month are rising, source: @cas_abbe. According to @cas_abbe, a lower-than-expected PPI would increase rate-cut odds and lift the crypto market, source: @cas_abbe.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the post on X stated that "We may never get October's CPI data." source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Nov 12, 2025. The Consumer Price Index is the official U.S. inflation report published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; if the October release is unavailable, a primary input used by traders to calibrate Federal Reserve rate expectations via CME FedWatch would be missing. sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; CME Group. For crypto markets, institutional access to BTC and ETH via CME Bitcoin and Ether futures makes macro data windows operationally important for positioning and hedging across risk assets. source: CME Group. Until there is official guidance, traders can monitor proxy gauges such as the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting, Treasury 10-year breakeven inflation, and ISM Prices Paid to infer inflation trends. sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; U.S. Department of the Treasury; Institute for Supply Management. Market participants should monitor the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for status updates or advisories regarding the October CPI report. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to the source, BTC traders are focused on this week’s U.S. CPI because the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the index at 8:30 a.m. ET on its official schedule and CPI prints are among the most market-moving macro data, source: BLS CPI calendar https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm. CPI surprises versus expectations can rapidly shift market-implied probabilities for the next FOMC meeting, as tracked in real time by the CME FedWatch Tool, which often triggers cross-asset repositioning that spills into crypto, source: CME FedWatch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Within CPI, core inflation and shelter carry outsized influence because shelter has the largest weight in the basket, making sticky shelter a key risk to rate-cut timelines that risk assets monitor, source: BLS CPI relative importance tables https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm. Given the documented rise in co-movement between crypto and U.S. equities, especially during macro shocks, BTC can mirror stock reactions to inflation surprises, so traders watch S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures into the print, source: IMF research blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks https://blogs.imf.org/en/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks/. Options markets also price event risk; BTC implied volatility typically adjusts into and immediately after CPI, and many use listed crypto options for hedging directional exposure around the release, source: Deribit Insights overview and DVOL resources https://insights.deribit.com and Deribit options marketplace https://www.deribit.com. Futures traders monitor basis and liquidity on CME Bitcoin futures to gauge institutional positioning and potential gap risk around the headline, source: CME Bitcoin futures product page https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html.

According to @CryptoMichNL, CPI and broader inflation readings came in below expectations, as stated in his X post on Oct 24, 2025. According to @CryptoMichNL, this macro surprise could trigger a Bitcoin (BTC) breakout to a new all-time high within the next 30 days, per the same X post on Oct 24, 2025. According to @CryptoMichNL, this view signals a near-term bullish bias for BTC on the back of softer inflation, as indicated in his X post on Oct 24, 2025.

According to @ReutersBiz, US stocks ended higher after mostly in-line US inflation data (source: Reuters Business). According to @ReutersBiz, the major US indexes nevertheless posted losses for the week (source: Reuters Business).

According to the source, Bitcoin BTC hovered above 111,000 dollars as traders waited for U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Source: X post dated Sep 25, 2025. The Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is a key inflation gauge referenced by the FOMC in policy assessments, making it a critical catalyst for risk assets including BTC. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve FOMC statement. Into and after the print, market-implied policy probabilities can be tracked via the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge rate hike or cut expectations that often drive BTC volatility. Source: CME Group. For positioning, traders commonly monitor the U.S. Dollar Index and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield for macro risk cues around the data window. Source: ICE Data Indices for DXY; U.S. Department of the Treasury.

According to Reuters Business, U.S. stocks closed lower as investors took profits with indexes near record levels. Reuters Business reported that Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged potentially stretched stock prices and that investors are awaiting an inflation reading later this week. According to the International Monetary Fund, correlations between BTC and U.S. equities rose notably after 2020, indicating that equity risk sentiment can transmit to crypto markets. Based on those linkages, traders monitor BTC and ETH around key U.S. inflation releases and Fed guidance for volatility cues, according to the IMF’s correlation analysis and Reuters Business’ market recap.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin is smashing through a key resistance level now, indicating a breakout that traders are monitoring, source: @rovercrc. The same source notes that all eyes are on the CPI data later today as the immediate market focus, source: @rovercrc.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) sold off following the most recent U.S. CPI releases, signaling elevated event risk for traders seeking to manage drawdowns and slippage around macro data (source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 11, 2025). CPI is released monthly at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and macro prints at this time often trigger outsized volatility across risk assets including BTC, so reducing leverage and position size into the release is a common risk control (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; source: CME Group education). Liquidity often thins and spreads widen in the seconds around the print, making limit orders and predefined levels preferable to market orders during the initial move (source: CME Group education). For options traders, implied volatility tends to rise into CPI and can compress after the release, so checking IV versus realized and using defined-risk structures is key when considering straddles or strangles (source: Deribit Insights; source: CME options education). Directional traders can wait for BTC to reclaim the pre-CPI VWAP or break the first 5–15 minute range before adding risk to reduce whipsaw exposure during the data digestion (source: CME Group trading education).

According to @KookCapitalLLC, Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past the $110,000 mark, propelled by significant inflows of over $407.78 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report. The source material highlights that the total lifetime inflow for these ETFs has reached $49.04 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. Matt Mena, a strategist at 21Shares, suggests this positive momentum puts a $200,000 price target for BTC by year-end 'firmly in play.' The market rally has extended to major altcoins including Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), with memecoins like BONK and FARTCOIN posting gains of over 20%, signaling increased trader risk appetite. Traders are now closely watching the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro notes could act as either a further catalyst or a significant obstacle for the market's trajectory.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. M2 money supply has reached a record high of nearly $22 trillion, presenting a conflicting outlook for Bitcoin (BTC). Data from barchart.com confirms this new peak. Historically, a rising money supply can signal looser financial conditions, which is often bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, TIOmarkets warns that if this growth outpaces the economy, it could lead to inflation, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. The St. Louis Federal Reserve has previously observed a lagged correlation where M2 growth precedes increases in PCE inflation, suggesting future inflationary pressures could build. In its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but adjusted its economic projections, now forecasting higher inflation (3.0% PCE) and lower GDP growth (1.4%) for the year. While the number of expected rate cuts for the current year remains the same, the long-term outlook indicates fewer cuts than previously anticipated. Following the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) remained stable, trading around $104,200.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has dropped below the 98 level for the first time since early 2022, a development that could create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). A weakening dollar is historically correlated with easier financial conditions and increased global liquidity, which tends to benefit speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies (@KobeissiLetter). This decline is driven by several factors, including U.S. headline inflation coming in at 2.4%, slightly below the 2.5% consensus estimate, which reinforces expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve policy (@KobeissiLetter). Citing the CME FedWatch Tool, the analysis notes that markets are pricing in a 99.8% probability of a rate cut at the June Fed meeting (@KobeissiLetter). Additionally, growing narratives around de-dollarization and policy uncertainty are cited as factors eroding confidence in the dollar and accelerating its decline, potentially signaling a bullish catalyst for the crypto market (@KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are experiencing downward pressure while the Nasdaq 100 reaches new all-time highs. This divergence is occurring as recent U.S. macroeconomic data points to potential stagflation, with the core PCE price index for May rising 0.2%, slightly above the 0.1% forecast, as stated in the report. Despite a growing U.S. national debt of over $36 trillion, a recent auction of 10-year Treasury notes showed strong demand, challenging the narrative of investors flocking to BTC and gold as safe havens. The source notes that Bitcoin is currently consolidating, with BTCUSDT data showing a price of approximately $107,572, trading between a 24-hour high of $108,746 and a low of $106,766.

According to Francisco Rodrigues, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.7% as heightened Middle East tensions drove investors toward safe havens like gold, yet analysts predict a $200,000 price by year-end due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts from subdued U.S. inflation data and rising institutional adoption. Boris Alergant noted BTC's risk-on behavior but highlighted structural demand from firms like MicroStrategy, while James Butterfill cited $900 million in digital asset fund inflows as a sign of rebounding confidence. SEC openness to altcoin ETFs such as Solana (SOL) could spur an 'altcoin ETF summer,' boosting DeFi tokens, per Youwei Yang.

According to Francisco Rodrigues, Bitcoin (BTC) rose to nearly $107,000, driven by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel that boosted global risk assets. Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown noted doubts about the truce holding due to leaked U.S. intelligence reports on Iran's nuclear capabilities, potentially resuming military action. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized patience on interest-rate cuts amid elevated inflation and tariff risks, which Bitunix analysts stated supports risk assets but requires monitoring of upcoming data. Derivatives traders, including Jake O from Wintermute, indicated neutral positioning with tight price action expected around $100,000-$105,000, while call option buying points to modest bullish sentiment.

According to Francisco Rodrigues, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.7% to $107,534.98 due to rising Middle East tensions, as investors shifted to safe havens like gold, causing broader crypto market declines. However, analysts forecast BTC could reach $200,000 by year-end, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts after subdued U.S. inflation data, as reported by the CME FedWatch tool. Boris Alergant highlighted BTC's risk-on behavior but noted growing institutional demand from firms like MicroStrategy. James Butterfill cited $900 million in digital asset inflows, signaling rebounding investor confidence in crypto markets.

According to Francisco Rodrigues, Bitcoin (BTC) declined 1.7% in the last 24 hours due to escalating Middle East tensions, which have driven investors toward safe havens like gold, as reported by market data. However, subdued US inflation data, with CPI rising less than forecast, increases the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially boosting crypto prices; traders expect two cuts starting in September, per the CME FedWatch tool. Boris Alergant of Babylon stated that BTC trades as a risk-on asset but remains optimistic due to rising institutional demand, while Youwei Yang of BIT Mining highlighted SEC openness to layer-1 assets and DeFi tokens, and James Butterfill of CoinShares noted $900 million in inflows signaling rebounding confidence.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the current market is experiencing unprecedented levels of noise due to factors such as tariffs, ongoing wars, Federal Reserve decisions, recession concerns, and fluctuating inflation data (source: @KobeissiLetter, June 22, 2025). The Kobeissi Letter emphasizes that, for traders, monitoring price action is crucial in navigating these volatile conditions. This approach is especially relevant for cryptocurrency market participants, as macroeconomic uncertainty and policy shifts often lead to sharp movements in BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Staying responsive to price trends and real-time analysis helps traders identify actionable opportunities despite the ongoing noise.

According to market analysts, the dollar index (DXY) falling below 98 for the first time since early 2022 signals a shift that could boost cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), as a weaker dollar eases financial conditions and benefits risk assets. This decline is driven by US headline inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, below consensus estimates, as per recent data, and a 99.8% probability of a Fed rate cut in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. De-dollarization narratives and Trump administration policy uncertainties are accelerating the dollar's fall, potentially fueling crypto gains.